Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro, Somaliland’s President-elect, has expressed strong support for a controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Somaliland and Ethiopia, which grants Ethiopia a 50-year lease on a stretch of Somaliland’s coastline in exchange for backing Somaliland’s quest for international recognition. Irro, who secured a historic 64% of the vote in the November 13 election, has pledged to review the deal after assuming office on December 13.
Signed on January 1, 2024, the MoU remains stalled, reflecting the complexities of implementing such a high-stakes agreement. While Irro has voiced his unwavering support, he admitted that he had not yet examined the deal in detail, signaling his intent to prioritize it during his presidency. The deal has been met with strong opposition from Somalia, which considers Somaliland’s independence claim illegal and views the agreement as a violation of its sovereignty.
Somalia’s reaction has been harsh, with the government condemning Ethiopia’s involvement and accusing it of setting a dangerous precedent for the region. Somalia has called the deal a violation of its territorial integrity, leading to diplomatic tensions, including the expulsion of an Ethiopian diplomat in October. Somali officials have also rallied international support, with backing from countries like Egypt and Eritrea.
Djibouti, a key trade partner of Ethiopia, has also expressed concerns, as Ethiopia’s reliance on Djibouti for over 90% of its maritime trade raises questions about the regional economic impact of shifting trade routes toward Somaliland. Despite Ethiopia’s earlier aggressive stance on securing Red Sea access, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has now emphasized that Ethiopia seeks to gain maritime access through peaceful means.
The deal remains at an impasse, with mediation efforts by Kenya, Uganda, and Turkey failing to resolve the conflict. Analysts attribute Ethiopia’s delay in implementing the agreement to sustained diplomatic pressure from Somalia. As Irro prepares to take office, the fate of the agreement hangs in the balance, with Somaliland hoping it could finally break its diplomatic isolation.
